Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
